September 24, 2024

Researcher seeks answers to why lottery is so popular during economic crises

Shawzub Raza stands in front of a Powerball lottery billboard off of the I-94 freeway in Detroit.

DETROIT – Prompted by a sea of highway billboards plastered with jackpot totals, Wayne State University student Shawzub Raza was curious about the allure of the lottery.

Instead of simply buying a ticket, Raza took a different route – channeling his curiosity into research. Diving into Powerball statistics, the triple-major began to investigate the mathematics behind winning, exploring whether beating the odds was ever truly possible or just a tantalizing mirage for millions.

“Usually when I’m driving, I listen to music and leave myself to my own thoughts,” said Raza, who graduated from International Baccalaureate (IB) program at Farmington Hills Harrison High School in 2018. “I saw the billboards and was like, ‘My gosh, it’s reaching up to a billion dollars. What is exactly happening?’ That’s when I started thinking about doing research on game theory.”

Shawzub Raza, who says “lotteries themselves are completely impractical to mathematicians,” writes out a mathematical formula on a blackboard.

Game theory is the mathematical study of rational decision-making in social interactions and was first introduced to Raza through Fernando Charro, Ph.D., an associate professor in Wayne State’s College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. In game theory, players’ perceptions of risk and reward are the main driving forces, and stress can induce riskier behaviors like gambling.

Raza’s research reveals that during an economic crisis, there is an increase in lottery participation, especially among lower socioeconomic populations. However, Raza’s study has only looked at winners, where, in reality, the chance of losing the Powerball jackpot is practically 100%.

“Lotteries themselves are completely impractical to mathematicians,” said Raza, who received a bachelor of science in psychology last May. “It’s such a low percentage, and I can conclude that it’s a losing game no matter what. The only problem I have as a psychology major is that people are still doing it in the first place.”

Raza expects to earn a B.S. in mathematics in December, and in biomedical physics next spring.

Through Wayne State’s Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program (UROP), Raza delved into an ambitious research project titled, “Lottery Manager vs. Gambler in Crisis: A Game-Theoretic Approach,” and presented the results at the Warriors Scholars Conference last April. He examined the Powerball lottery using a Monte Carlo method to simulate 20-plus years of lottery data.

Raza conducts his research under the mentorship of Charro, an expert in applied mathematics. Their collaboration is a prime example of how Wayne State faculty provide academic guidance as well as hands-on support to help students tackle real-world problems through research. Charro’s expertise has been instrumental in guiding Raza’s application of the Monte Carlo method.

Ezemenari M. Obasi, Ph.D., vice president for research & innovation, said Wayne State fosters a collaborative environment where faculty members are committed to helping students achieve their academic and research goals.

A gambler decision tree: The white color represents the individual (n) return and the red color represents the populations (n - 1) return.

“Whether through one-on-one mentorship or lab work, Wayne State provides a strong support system,” Dr. Obasi said. “This project exemplifies how students are encouraged to take on bold ideas and research that go beyond classroom learning, gaining practical skills they can carry into their professional lives. This kind of interdisciplinary work is what drives both academic growth and practical applications, opening doors to real-world problem-solving across a variety of fields.”

As Raza continues to refine his Monte Carlo simulation, his findings could contribute to broader discussions on lottery systems and statistical modeling, offering new insights into the unpredictability and allure of games of chance.

At Wayne State University, undergraduate students have learning opportunities that extend well beyond the classroom, allowing them to put knowledge “to work” in real-world settings while gaining deeper insights and new perspectives. Through the Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program (UROP), students can connect with world-class faculty mentors to conduct, publish and present research. Providing hands-on learning opportunities to all Wayne State students is part of the College to Career initiative and key to ensuring they graduate career ready.